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October 18, 2003, Scotsman THE WEST MUST WALK A FINE LINE BETWEEN LIVING AND DEALING WITH AL-QAEDA'S THREAT COMMENTARY Gethin Chamberlain Diplomatic Correspondent TONY Blair has done it, Jack Straw has done it, the head of the Metropolitan Police has done it. It is becoming impossible to get away from warnings about the inevitability of major terrorist attacks on Britain and British interests. Hardly a week goes by without dire predictions about al-Qaeda's attempts to produce a dirty bomb, or that al-Qaeda has sleepers scattered around Britain just waiting for orders to attack, or that al-Qaeda is regrouping for a new wave of attacks. If a plane crashes, the lights go out or a ferry crashes in New York, thoughts immediately turn to Osama bin Laden's finest. Al-Qaeda has become the West's bogeyman. This week it was the turn of Eliza Manningham-Buller, the head of MI5, who cropped up on Thursday promising that the threat from al-Qaeda was here to stay for years to come. But with each new warning, there is a risk that the currency of fear that they provoke is becoming devalued. Such predictions are easy to make but very, very difficult to disprove. When cynics suggested that the extraordinary sight of tanks at Heathrow airport in February was designed to frighten the public into supporting the coming war against Iraq, intelligence sources were quick to stress that it was the presence of the troops that had deterred a possible missile or rocket attack on a passenger aircraft. The intention appears to be to keep everyone on their toes. Sir John Stevens, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, has warned that terrorist attacks are inevitable. The Home Secretary has talked of the likelihood of suicide bombings in London. In Iraq, intelligence officers say a major attack on British forces is inevitable. Not everyone is convinced. Intelligence experts say that al-Qaeda has been severely disabled in the two years since the 11 September attacks. Unable to operate out of Afghanistan with the impunity it once enjoyed, its leaders have been driven into hiding on the borders of Pakistan or in Iran and Iraq, where they again find themselves vulnerable to the scrutiny of the United States. Moreover, critics of the increased security measures introduced post-11 September suggest that they are token gestures designed to cover the backs of politicians rather than reducing the possibility of terrorist attacks. Hundreds of thousands of penknives, nail files and nail clippers are confiscated from airline passengers every week before people are allowed to board aircraft whose crews sell drink in glass bottles, and in some cases provide passengers with metal cutlery with which to eat their meals. Only yesterday, boxcutters and notes said to be suspicious in nature were found in bags left in the lavatories of two Southwest Airlines planes in New Orleans and Houston. The finds prompted the searching of 7,000 aircraft across the US, and inevitable delays to passengers. Who put them there was not immediately clear, although no-one seriously suggested they were connected to a plot to hijack the aircraft. The result was a few more people afraid to fly, another victory for terrorists who no longer have to raise a finger to cause alarm. Ms Manningham-Buller's prediction of a long haul in the fight against Islamic terrorism included a new warning about the threat to the food industry and the chemical industry, areas she described as a "very attractive target for terrorists", just as previous warnings have suggested that reservoirs could be poisoned. She said terrorist networks were composed of individuals who lived routine lives until called upon for specific tasks by another part of the network. The very fact that they were difficult to detect made the threat more significant, she said, although she gave no indication about how the intelligence services intended to find them. Terrorist scares have become a fact of life. Earlier this month, police detained 11 men who were described at the time as "suspected Algerian terrorists." They were said to have been picked up on suspicion of being involved in the "commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism." Only one later appeared before a court, charged with possessing documents which could have been used by terrorists. The paranoia is not restricted to Britain: yesterday it was reported that Adnan el-Shukrijumah, a suspected senior al-Qaeda operative, travelled to Canada in search of material to make a "dirty bomb." The FBI and CIA were said to be on his trail, fearing he was plotting an attack on a US city with a crude radioactive device. The problem the intelligence services must address is that the public is already sceptical about the powers of a service which failed to spot the 11 September plot and which appears to have been duped by Saddam Hussein into believing that Iraq was teeming with chemical and biological weapons. As each new alert comes and goes without any sign of al-Qaeda, that scepticism grows. And this is a dangerous state of affairs, because it is clear that al-Qaeda does still pose a threat. Members have been picked up in Iran and there is plenty of evidence to suggest they are present in Iraq. In the Philippines, Jemaah Islamiyah, the terror organisation associated with al-Qaeda, remains active and extremely dangerous, as evidenced by the Bali bombings and the more recent attacks. The intelligence services and the politicians appear to have learned one lesson from the attacks of 11 September. Next time, if there is a next time, they will be able to point to their warnings as proof that they were on the case, but they would do well to consider the dangers of crying wolf.
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................................................................................................................. Copyright ©2004 Gethin Chamberlain. All rights reserved. |
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