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BROWN FEELS THE SQUEEZE OVER EUROPE AS OLD FOES RE-GROUP PRIME MINISTER BESIEGED BY CALLS FROM VOTERS, MPS AND THE TORIES TO HOLD REFERENDUM ON EU TREATY The Sunday Telegraph, 14 October 2007 GETHIN CHAMBERLAIN and PATRICK HENNESSY GROWING public and political demands for a referendum on the EU reform treaty will present Gordon Brown with his stiffest test on the European stage this week. He flies to Portugal on Thursday with the aim of securing a final agreement on the wording of the treaty that will be favourable to Britain. However, he faces a triple threat from a resurgent Conservative Party, MPs on his own side and voters. Growing numbers of Labour backbenchers are speaking out openly to demand a public vote, while David Cameron returns to the debate today in an article for The Sunday Telegraph in which he accuses the Prime Minister of a betrayal of "trust and democracy''. The Conservative leader adds: "Gordon Brown has calculated that he can bamboozle the British people with his Euro-spin and thereby avoid the condemnation he deserves for breaking his manifesto promise. I think he's misjudged the mood of the country.'' Two-thirds of voters say there should be a referendum on the treaty, according to today's ICM opinion poll for this newspaper. The survey showed 66 per cent want the Prime Minister to call a vote - something he has consistently refused to do - while 21 per cent say he should not. If a referendum were held, 47 per cent say they would vote against the treaty, while 29 per cent would back it. The poll also shows that 38 per cent would choose to leave the EU if a simple "in or out'' vote were held, while 56 per cent would opt to stay in. The figures will add to the pressure on Mr Brown to perform an about-turn and promise a referendum, just as Tony Blair did in 2004 when he pledged a public vote on the European constitution. The premier insists he will secure a good deal for Britain in Lisbon this week and that his "red line'' areas - safeguarding national sovereignty in justice and home affairs, legal rights, foreign and defence policy, tax and social security - will be protected. His opponents claim the exact opposite. Neil O'Brien, the director of the Open Europe think-tank, argues that Mr Brown's opt-outs will steadily be eroded by legal challenges in the European Court of Justice. He predicts that Mr Brown will try to claim a "historic victory'' at the end of the summit on Friday, and gives warning against taking such a declaration "at face value''. Yet despite the political manoeuvring over the treaty in Britain, the biggest threat to it overall could come from abroad - and in particular from the daughter-in-law of the former Labour leader Lord Kinnock. Helle Thorning-Schmidt, also the leader of Denmark's main opposition party, the Social Democrats, is leading demands for a referendum in Denmark, where the latest polls show that only 35 per cent of voters favour the treaty. The 40-year-old is a diehard pro-European and a fan of the treaty. But, unlike Mr Brown, she believes that it can be considered legitimate only if put to the voters. "There was no question that the old treaty should be put to a vote. We need to see the new treaty and conduct a similar exercise. This is a political judgment,'' said Ms Thorning-Schmidt, who met her husband, Stephen Kinnock, while studying in Belgium. Supporters of the treaty hope that they can reach agreement in Lisbon on a deal that will reintroduce most of the highlights of the failed constitution, including a full-time president appointed for a 30-month term, a foreign minister, albeit under a different designation, and majority voting to limit the opportunity for national governments to block legislation. Critics say that all that is missing from the original constitution are the name and references to a European flag and anthem. Their hopes of seeing off the treaty have been boosted by opposition in a number of member states, including Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands, and by the need for unanimous agreement on its wording. The Poles pose the first threat to the treaty this week, with their domestic elections due to take place three days after the summit opens. With many Poles out of step with Europe on issues such as the death penalty and abortion, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the Polish prime minister, is holding out over a clause allowing countries to delay implementation of controversial legislation. Even if a form of words is agreed this week, the finalised treaty could be wrecked by a "no'' vote in a referendum in any of the 27 member states. Only Ireland is committed to a public ballot, with voters expected to back the treaty, but there is pressure in Britain for a vote and the Dutch government is also in trouble. However, it is the Danes who offer most hope to those opposed to the treaty. Ms Thorning-Schmidt was elected two years ago on a "New Labour'' ticket, but last week she broke with Denmark's mainstream political consensus by suggesting a referendum might well be the best option for her country. With the extreme Right and Left parties in the Danish parliament already calling for a referendum, a united opposition combined with waverers in the government coalition could create a majority in favour of a vote. Ms Thorning-Schmidt is an unlikely champion for Eurosceptics. Her father-in-law was a member of the European Commission for nine years until 2004. Lord Kinnock's wife Glenys has been a member of the European Parliament since 1994 and is Labour spokeswoman on international development. Ms Thorning-Schmidt's referendum demand will present yet another problem for the Prime Minister as he confronts the biggest European challenge of his time in office this week. Last night, Mr Brown also faced criticism from the European Commission president over Britain's "red lines'' on criminal justice matters. Jose Manuel Barroso said the opt-outs on policing and judicial co-operation - seen as essential to Mr Brown's attempts to sign the treaty without a referendum - would hinder the fight against terrorism. He said: "Britain, which is always first to ask for global action against terrorism, appears not to be as committed as other members of the EU when it comes to Europe. This surprises me. To fight international terrorism and crime, we will need more, not less, co-ordination and integration.'' -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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