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October 13, 2003, Scotsman ANALYSIS: COALITION STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN ORDER Gethin Chamberlain IF ANY reminder was needed of the dilemma facing the coalition forces in Iraq six months after the fall of Saddam Hussein, it was provided by the explosion of a car bomb outside the Baghdad Hotel yesterday. It was not just the number of people killed that was significant, but more the nature of the target. Even with the levels of security that would be expected for a building used by members of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), the US-backed Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), American contractors and - according to rumours sweeping Baghdad - the CIA, it was still vulnerable to a determined bomber. More than 100 coalition soldiers have died since George Bush announced that the fighting was over and US forces in particular have faced daily attacks in areas where loyalty to Saddam Hussein did not vanish with the old regime. It is not just the military that has been targeted: anyone associated with the new order appears vulnerable. The UN cut its numbers in Iraq after the car bombing of its Baghdad headquarters in August killed its representative Sergio Vieira de Mello and 21 others. The Shia leader Ayatollah Bakr al-Hakim was one of 125 people killed by a car bomb in Najaf and the only female member of the IGC, Aquila al-Hashimi, was shot dead last month. Last week, a suicide bomber targeted a police station, killing eight and injuring 45, and a Spanish intelligence officer, Jose Antonio Bernal, was shot dead near his home in Baghdad. In response, the coalition organisations have been driven to hide behind concrete barriers, stepping up security and cutting themselves off further still from the ordinary Iraqis they say they are there to help. And therein lies their problem: this is the last thing they need to be doing. While a rump of Saddam loyalists continues to make life difficult for the coalition, the indications are that a large part of the population are glad to be rid of their former leader. Saddam did not enjoy widespread popularity apart from in small sections of the country and the general disillusion with his regime was evidenced by the way the majority of his army simply took off their uniforms and ran away when the coalition crossed the border. All that most Iraqis want is for the coalition to put their country back together so they can get on with their lives. They want food, they want water, they want a guaranteed electricity supply and they want to be able to work to pay for those consumer goods now appearing in the shops and market places. Despite the heavily reported setbacks, there are many more signs that the coalition has turned a corner. Figures for gun deaths in Baghdad last month, while still higher than before the war started, show a sharp drop from the August high of 518. Out of 55 of the most wanted Iraqi officials named in the notorious pack of cards, 40 have now been captured. Saddam Hussein's sons Uday and Qusay have been cornered and killed. The hope within the CPA is that as its efforts to restore services begin to bear fruit, support will ebb away from those still intent on attacking them. The price, though, is high, both in terms of the physical risks to those involved and in terms of dollars. The CPA estimates that next year it will need dollars 8.2 billion to cover the cost of restoring services such as electricity, health, water, transport, telecommunications and education, with another dollars 11.2 billion required for the following three years. Schools and universities are open again but many - more than 1,000 in Basra alone - are in urgent need of repair. It has taken six months and GBP 80 million to restore Baghdad's electricity supply to pre-war levels, during which time the population has grown increasingly angry about the power cuts that have dogged the city and hampered attempts to restart oil production and other industry. Oil production, at about 1.9 million barrels a day, remains below pre-war levels of three million barrels a day and sabotage is still a problem but oil sales have brought in more than dollars 1.5 billion since June, when exports resumed. Although the police service is taking time to train up, the courts are running again and work is under way on a new constitution. In the meantime, the interim Governing Council has some say in the running of the country, even if the final word rests with the CPA. With little prospect of an end to attacks like yesterday's hotel bombing until Saddam is dead or in custody, the only viable option is to press ahead with reforms and reconstruction in the hope that the rest of the population can be won over.
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................................................................................................................. Copyright ©2004 Gethin Chamberlain. All rights reserved. |
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