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The forces of change mount against Mugabe The Zimbabwean president's dream of a new term in power looks likely to be shattered by his own MPs and the country's economic woes by PETA THORNYCROFT in Harare AND GETHIN CHAMBERLAIN 19 March 2007, The Daily Telegraph ROBERT MUGABE is facing humiliation at the hands of his rattled political supporters, who appear set on shattering his dream of a fresh term as president of Zimbabwe. The 83-year-old must face a meeting of the central committee of his Zanu-PF party on March 29 knowing that his internal opponents are confident of blocking his bid to stand again when his term of office runs out next year. In an attempt to save his political skin, the "old man'' has hit on a complicated formula that he hopes will force his opponents to back him. He wants his term extended by two years, to 2010, so that presidential and full parliamentary election cycles become synchronised. Otherwise, he has threatened, he will call an early parliamentary election next year, forcing his party's MPs to campaign alongside him. But those alternatives have horrified many in the party. With the economy out of control and inflation on course to hit 4,000 per cent this year, the last thing his MPs want is to appear on the same ballot as Mr Mugabe. "If a dog were to stand against him, the dog would win,'' one insider observed last week. Nor, because of the rapidly collapsing economy, are they prepared to allow him to hang on until 2010. One Zanu-PF insider said: "We're all against him now. He will struggle to get our support for him to be the candidate in any election.'' The central committee meeting is crucial because, in December, Mr Mugabe failed to gain the unanimous endorsement of the party's annual conference to extend his presidency for two years. Instead, it delegated the decision to the central committee. After being written off more times than he has had opposition rallies broken up, Mr Mugabe's time may finally be running out. Almost a week after Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and dozens of others were horrifically beaten in a crackdown on political demonstrations, even Mr Mugabe's fellow African leaders appear to acknowledge - reluctantly - that something must be done. Yesterday the previously supine African Union was moved to express "great concern'' about the crisis and to call for human rights to be respected. The Southern African Development Community, a group of neighbouring countries, is also applying pressure, alarmed that a bloody presidential election in 2010 would disrupt South Africa's hosting of the football World Cup. Zimbabwe's opposition has pledged to use any democratic means to topple the president. "We are in the final phase of the final push,'' claimed the MDC's secretary-general, Tendai Biti, yesterday. In response, Mr Mugabe had the MDC's other president, Arthur Mutambara, arrested at the airport on his way to South Africa. Gift Tandare, the activist shot dead during the demonstrations after which Mr Tsvangirai was arrested, was meanwhile buried in secret by the central intelligence organisation to prevent further demonstrations. Mr Mugabe warned the opposition they would face more beatings if they staged protests. "We are the government. We will not be deterred by any criticisms, which are completely unfounded, from carrying out our duties,'' he said. Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, accused Mr Mugabe yesterday of making the beating of opposition leaders a "deliberate act of policy''. "One can only hold him responsible,'' she said. "He is in charge of the government. He has made it very clear that this is a deliberate act of policy on the part of the government of Zimbabwe and that he is indifferent to the real, I think, horror that is felt right across the international community.'' She said Britain and its allies were "pressing very hard'' for action by the United Nations Human Rights Council and she also called for a tightening of sanctions imposed by the European Union after Mr Mugabe had won elections in 2002, which the opposition insists were rigged. The travel ban and an assets freeze cover 130 people, including Mr Mugabe, his current and former cabinets and leaders of Zanu-PF. But if the president is not going to leave office because of a few skirmishes in a minority of townships around Harare last week and words of international condemnation, there is one opponent he cannot face down: the economy. In the past 10 days the exchange rate for US dollars has doubled. Fuel prices are rising by about 20 per cent every two days. "No one will travel next week, because they can't afford the fares. I can't pay this price for fuel,'' said one angry driver. Commuter fares went up about 30 per cent last week. The talk in the streets is of money, the cost of food, soap and bus fares, and where to get the lowest prices. When the price of milk jumped on Wednesday to about Z$17,000 for a two-litre bottle, from Z$10,000 on Tuesday, a woman at a supermarket check-out till in Harare let out a wail. At the official rate of exchange, that two litres of milk would have cost about pounds 36. There are few secrets in Harare and political gossip does the rounds almost as soon as any decision is taken in State House or in Zanu-PF headquarters. The burning question now is whether Zanu-PF MPs have the nerve to turn their back on the president and, if they did, who would replace him. Leading the resistance is Solomon Mujuru, the wartime guerrilla leader known as Rex Nhongo, whose wife, Joyce, is one of two vice-presidents. The retired general, a former defence forces chief and minister of defence, who quit politics to make money, is one of the main players behind the scenes hoping to oust Mr Mugabe - but not because he wants the top job. Like anyone who can work a calculator, Gen Mujuru knows the economy can no longer endure its international isolation, which cannot end while the "old man'' is at the helm. He would prefer Mr Mugabe to go gracefully and to live in splendid retirement in his palace in Borrowdale, 10 miles north of Harare, writing his memoirs. If that happened, Joyce Mujuru, a teenage recruit into Mr Mugabe's wartime forces, could step up. Elevated to the number two position in 2005, she has quietly worked to earn the trust of the productive sector of Zimbabwe's economy. She has been to look at the chaos on the formerly white-owned farms, held a garden party for business leaders and dropped in on the mining sector. So far she has kept any promises she has given. But insiders say the Mujurus both believe the job should go to Simba Makoni, the mild-mannered former finance minister. He has not been an outstanding success in the senior jobs he has held, they say, but he is a decent man. Mr Makoni has ducked for cover for the past two years and some economists regard him with misgiving. But he did at least buy the farm he runs in eastern Zimbabwe, unlike many who seized theirs, and he would be utterly disgusted at the treatment of Mr Tsvangirai. Another contender is Emmerson Mnangagwa, now a junior housing minister. The outsider, but Mr Mugabe's favourite, is Gideon Gono, the governor of Zimbabwe's Reserve Bank. He controls what is left of the money and has engaged in an impressive publicity campaign since he took office in 2003. Significantly wealthy himself, he is personal banker to Mr Mugabe and decides how much money to print so that civil servants can be paid. Last night two more of those injured in the demonstrations last week were arrested at Harare airport as they tried to leave for South Africa. Mr Mugabe is not giving up power without a fight. .
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