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March 11, 2004 MR BLAIR TALKS TOUGH, BUT WHERE'S THE CASH? Gethin Chamberlain IT WAS only a few days ago that Tony Blair was standing up there on the podium, his eyes glinting, his facial muscles configured to indicate concern, pronouncing on the need to fight the good fight against terror. Britain, he said, remained in mortal danger of a terrorist attack. In the fight against global terror, it would be dangerous to err on the side of caution. Mr Blair was doing what he seems to do best these days, playing the part of the man who alone knows the true threat to his nation, and yet is still prepared to face it down. This was Tough Tony: tough on terror, tough on the causes of terror, tough on anyone who suggested he was not tough on terror. Tough luck, then, that less than a week later a letter from his defence secretary complaining about the Treasury's attempts to slash the budget that pays for the war on terror should find its way into a national newspaper. Poor Mr Blair. Just as he was finding his feet after a rather rough patch, he finds them kicked out from under him again. What is a Prime Minister to do? On the one hand, he has an obligation to put his government's money where his tough-talking mouth is. Geoff Hoon, the defence secretary, is doing no more than point out that if the armed forces are to be used as an arm of British foreign policy, then somebody has to pick up the bill. Mr Blair's partners on the war on terror have done just that: last month, Australia announced it was doubling its defence budget in an attempt to turn the country into one of the world's major military powers. Over the next ten years, it intends to increase its defence spending by GBP 21 billion. The United States, meanwhile, is planning to increase its defence spending by 7 per cent next year alone, to dollars 401.7 billion, with another dollars 40.2 billion to be spent on the department for homeland security. The British Army is deployed in 80 countries around the world, and its commitments in Iraq, Afghanistan and Kosovo have proved to be a major drain on manpower and resources. Overstretched and drawing heavily on its reserves, the army can ill-afford any further cuts in manpower, let alone the oft-threatened loss of infantry regiments. Equally important is its need to invest in a new generation of fighting vehicles to keep pace with the changing face of modern warfare and the demands for more mobile forces that can be deployed quickly around the globe. On Saturday, The Scotsman revealed how previous defence cuts had played a part in the death of the first Scottish soldier to die in Iraq, ensuring that he went into battle in an outdated vehicle which should have been phased out years ago. Lance-Corporal Barry Stephen died after his armoured personnel carrier broke down a couple of days into the campaign; any cuts in the defence budget will ensure that its replacement, the introduction of which has already been postponed, will be pushed back yet further. The Royal Navy, too, is already shouldering more than its fair share of cutbacks; doubts remain about plans for two new aircraft carriers, and with plans to get rid of at least four Type-42 destroyers in the next three months, the number of surface warships will have fallen to below that of the French navy for the first time since the 17th century. The Royal Air Force, meanwhile, appears resigned to losing at least one tranche of the order for Eurofighters - somewhere in excess of 80 planes - but there have been howls of anguish at the prospect of losing its remaining Jaguar squadrons, up to six bases and as many as 7,000 jobs. On the other hand, Mr Blair is in a fix. His Chancellor says that he cannot have any more cash. The Ministry of Defence has already blown its budget on expensive projects that have overrun on cost and delivery times, and someone has to pay. Gordon Brown wants GBP 1.2 billion in cuts, marginally better than the projected cuts of GBP 1.5 billion promised by the Tories if they seize power at the next general election, but still a heavy blow for a department struggling to cope with the demands placed upon it in an uncertain new world. The Treasury argues that the MoD has been undervaluing its assets in its budget and must therefore remedy the situation as part of a new resource accounting system. The MoD replies that it can juggle the figures around as much as the Treasury likes, but the bottom line is that unless the Chancellor comes up with some extra cash to pay for operations in Iraq, there is likely to be a shortfall of anything up to GBP 2.9 billion. Mr Hoon, emboldened by avoiding the sack in the wake of the Hutton report, has decided to fight his corner, and that will win him more friends in the military. Mr Blair, too, has already demonstrated his reluctance to part with his defence secretary. Mr Brown, meanwhile, is doing nothing to endear himself to Mr Blair, whose image on the international stage is being undermined by his Chancellor's firm grip on the purse strings. Only yesterday it emerged that the British embassy in Kuwait faced a period of closure because the bean counters had slashed its funding. An outraged memo from Christopher Wilton, our man in Kuwait City, revealed that there was not even enough money to pay the local staff. It was, he said, the final straw. The maintenance budget was laughably inadequate, there were underlying problems with a small budget and the absurdities of the management system were the antithesis of good financial planning. The embassy would inevitably have to close for part of next year, too, he concluded grumpily. Embarrassing though that may be, the closure of an embassy at least means only a few disgruntled visa applicants and diplomatic egg on the face. What Gordon Brown has in mind for the armed forces is a lot more serious. But experience has shown that the Chancellor can find the money when he wants to. Last year, when he was endeavouring to endear himself to the voters, he managed to lay his hands on GBP 4 billion to fund a scheme to provide a nest -egg for every new-born child in the country. Tony Blair is happy to talk tough on the war on terror, but if he is not prepared to face down his Chancellor and demand that cash is made available to fund that fight, then his words are nothing but hot air. It is time for him to decide whether he wants to support Mr Brown's gimmicks, or to provide this country's armed forces with the manpower and equipment they need to carry out his orders. * Gethin Chamberlain is The Scotsman's Defence and Diplomatic Correspondent.
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................................................................................................................. Copyright ©2004 Gethin Chamberlain. All rights reserved. |
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