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12-02-2004 The Scotsman Analysis: The guerrillas' risky strategy By GETHIN CHAMBERLAIN THE latest spate of suicide bombings in Iraq has echoes of the tide of attacks on US troops in the autumn during which the military death toll appeared to be spiralling upwards inexorably. Then, as now, questions were asked about how many more attacks it would take to destroy the fragile peace and pitch the country into civil war. Last year the US forces were under attack; now the Iraqi police, army and civilians are bearing the brunt. The theory being touted from the US side is that this is part of an al-Qaeda plot to destabilise the country before the handover of power. The evidence to support that theory has come from the reported interception of a letter between al-Qaeda operatives who talk of a race against time to wreck US plans to hand over sovereignty to the Iraqis on 30 June. A strategy to attack Shiites and spark a sectarian war that Sunni Muslims would join is also mentioned. It is not possible to know if the letter is genuine. The letter suggests that if the aim of wrecking the handover is not achieved, al-Qaeda would have no choice but to move on to another country. That, on the face of it, might seem unlikely. The bombings will undoubtedly continue as long as parts of the country remain loyal to Saddam Hussein and can see no future in a Shiite-dominated state. Whether they continue at the current level is more open to debate. The anniversary of the war is coming up and it seems likely the bombers will be unable to resist the symbolism of a wave of spectacular attacks then. But we have been here before. For a while it seemed the US might wilt under the pressure of a death toll that rose daily and had begun to register with a previously sympathetic US public. But rather than throwing up their hands, the Americans hit back, striking areas they believed were harbouring rebels, using firepower not deployed since the end of the war. The number of attacks dwindled and slipped off the news radar. If the Iraqi civilian death toll continues to rise, that might well be the answer again. While some might argue that such attacks can only serve to strengthen Iraqi opposition to the bombers, it is not in the coalition's interest to allow them to continue. This week has seen protests against the Americans after one bombing, with calls for a rapid withdrawal and a transfer to Iraqi rule. The aim of the bombers appears to be to convince the population that co-operating with the occupying armies will only bring trouble on their heads. But what the bombers cannot offer is a realistic alternative, and that could be their undoing. The coalition troops are already committed to handing over power this summer, even if arguments about the niceties of the electoral process are yet to be resolved. The new Iraqi security forces are well paid and want to see the country back in Iraqi hands. They have made it clear they will not be deterred by the attacks, but as they mourn their friends, they will remember who was behind them. Perhaps there is truth in the purported al-Qaeda letter after all. When the coalition troops leave the Iraqi army to its own devices, the bombers are likely to find life becoming a lot more uncomfortable.
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................................................................................................................. Copyright ©2004 Gethin Chamberlain. All rights reserved. |
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