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Taliban will fight through the winter, warns British commander BY GETHIN CHAMBERLAIN in Kabul 10 December 2006, The Sunday Telegraph
THE TALIBAN can attack Nato troops in southern Afghanistan whenever it wants, despite months of intense fighting, British military commanders have admitted. Hopes that the onset of winter would bring with it the traditional break in the fighting have been dashed by the Taliban's sudden return to the attack, using a mixture of suicide bombings and a ferocious fire-fight with British forces last week to turn up the heat on the coalition. Partly as a result, there is evidence that Afghans are gloomy about their country's long-term future, with some of the most educated planning to go abroad in pursuit of better economic prospects. A spokesman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) told The Sunday Telegraph that a brain drain to neighbouring countries had already begun. What is more, she said, few of those who leave have any intention of returning to their homeland. The stark military assessment of the Taliban's willingness to continue fighting through the winter - when fighters would customarily return to their homes, families and farms - came after a British marine was among 10 people to die in Taliban attacks in a single week. Jonathan Wigley, 21, was killed during a 10-hour fire-fight in Garmser on Tuesday. "The Taliban can pick up whenever they want to,'' said Lt Col Andy Price, the British military spokesman in southern Afghanistan. "They can attack us at a time of their choosing. They are still operating in and about the outskirts of the areas we are in.'' Col Price said that there was no sign that the Taliban intended to put operations on hold. "I wouldn't say there has been a lull, though there is a difference in intensity,'' he said. "We are facing about three or four contacts [attacks] a day on average. If it is a mild winter then the violence may keep going.'' The warning comes as rumours intensified that the British-backed governor of Helmand, Mohammed Daud, has been sacked by President Hamid Karzai. If true, the dismissal could seriously set back the British strategy of reconstruction and counter-insurgency in the region. Last Thursday, the top United Nations diplomat in Afghanistan, Tom Koenigs, admitted that a combination of the insurgency, corruption, the illegal drugs trade and poor law enforcement had battered public confidence in the country. Although a poll showed that nine out of 10 Afghans thought life was better than under the Taliban, the UNHCR spokesman said that there was growing evidence of a brain drain, with many Afghans who had fled the fighting having no intention of returning. The spokesman, Astrid van Genderen Stort, said that the profile of those leaving the country was changing. "They are going for work,'' she said. "Times have changed. It is not a big refugee thing, more economic migrancy. A lot of people work outside the country and want to stay outside.'' She said that the influx of refugees who had returned in large numbers after the overthrow of the Taliban had slowed to a trickle. An estimated 3.5 million were living in Pakistan and Iran, with more elsewhere. "In the first years millions came back, but it has really fallen now,'' she said. "Those abroad are not that interested in returning. Their areas are so under-developed they could hardly survive if they did.'' Even in Kabul, where the national government led by Mr Karzai has full control, there is disillusionment with progress since the fall of the Taliban five years ago. One woman, Basira Mojaddidi, an adviser to Oxfam, said many were giving up and getting out. "My own family went to Pakistan because there is not any good service delivery in terms of health, education, water and sanitation here,'' she said. "Nor is there a good power and energy system. There isn't any calm place to sit and think about your own future or the country's.'' Ms Mojaddidi said insufficient access to basic services, particularly for women, was a major factor. "Some women are still not allowed to go to doctors since there is no female doctor, even if they die in pain,'' she said. "Some girls are not allowed to go to school since there are not enough female teachers. "If Mr Karzai says that the children of Afghanistan are the future of Afghanistan, then why not find solutions to give Afghanistan a bright future rather than leaving all girls and boys in the dark?''
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Copyright ©2011 Gethin Chamberlain. All rights reserved. |
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